The seminar is scheduled for Aug. 19-20 at The Commons in downtown Columbus, Indiana.

ACT Research has become one of the more recognized forecasting and analytics firms tied to the North American trucking industry since launching in 1986. The company is widely followed by fleets, truck manufacturers, suppliers, and businesses connected to commercial transportation markets.

Freight, Truck Orders, And Market Forecasts Expected to Lead Discussions

According to ACT Research, analysts during the seminar will present outlooks covering multiple areas of the trucking industry between 2026 and 2029.

Topics expected to be discussed include:

freight market conditions
Class 8 truck demand
trailer markets
medium-duty vehicle trends
used truck pricing
emerging transportation technology

With fleets continuing to watch operating costs, freight demand, and equipment pricing closely, long-term forecasting events remain a major focus across several areas of the trucking industry heading into 2026.

Industry Executives Scheduled to Speak During Event

The seminar will also feature several high-profile transportation industry executives.

Scheduled keynote speakers include:

Rusty Rush, CEO of Rush Enterprises
Alison Trueblood, vice president and general manager at Cummins
Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprises

ACT said the event regularly attracts transportation decision makers from across the commercial vehicle sector, including fleet operations, manufacturers, suppliers, technology providers, and financial organizations connected to trucking.

Seminar Marks Major Milestone for ACT Research

Along with serving as the company’s 75th Market Vitals Seminar, the event also marks ACT Research’s 40th anniversary.

The company said networking opportunities throughout the seminar are designed to encourage discussion between transportation leaders and businesses navigating changes in freight markets, commercial vehicle demand, and broader economic conditions affecting trucking.

As fleets continue evaluating freight activity and equipment planning for the years ahead, events focused on forecasting and market analysis continue drawing significant attention throughout the transportation industry.

The Truck Drivers USA editorial team creates practical, driver-focused content covering industry topics, job trends, and real-world decisions that impact drivers at every stage of their careers. Each article is written to provide clear, accurate information that drivers can use.

Last updated: May 29, 2026

Source: The Trucker

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The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its seasonally adjusted For Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.9% in September to 114.2, down from 115.3 in August. While that drop erased gains from earlier in the summer, tonnage is still 0.8% higher than September 2024, showing slow but steady improvement over the past year.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the data highlights just how uneven freight conditions remain.
“Tonnage levels remain choppy, but they are up 2.1% since hitting a low in January. Compared to the high three years earlier, however, truck tonnage is still off by 3.9%. In fact, September’s tonnage level was essentially the same as in September 2023, underscoring the tough freight market over the last few years,” Costello said.

Market Signals Are Shifting

Even though tonnage slipped, other signs suggest the market could be turning. FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) rose to a nearly neutral 0.3 in August after sitting at -1.03 in July. The TCI measures key factors like freight volume, rates, capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs to gauge the overall health of the market.

FTR said the latest gain came “primarily due to less challenging freight rates,” noting that while utilization improved slightly, it was not a major driver of the index change.

Looking ahead, FTR projects better conditions in 2026 and 2027, even though near-term readings will likely stay close to current levels.

Capacity Tightening Could Lead to Recovery

One of the biggest potential drivers of market recovery may come from tightening capacity. Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, said restrictions on issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) for foreign drivers could impact fleet capacity.

“The potential for a capacity-driven recovery in trucking has risen over the past month due to severe restrictions imposed on issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses for foreign drivers,” Vise said. “However, despite some anecdotal reports about various effects of a crackdown on immigrant drivers, available data has yet to show a substantial impact on market conditions.”

Vise previously noted that the FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL rule could push roughly 194,000 CDL holders out of the market over two years, a shift that might recreate the tight utilization levels seen in 2021.
“This would be very good for carriers, not very good for shippers,” he added.

Vise also pointed out that stepped-up enforcement from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement could add even more pressure on capacity, though the full impact is still unclear.

“We expect pressure on foreign drivers to be a significant factor for capacity in the coming months, but many questions remain about the scope and speed of the tighter CDL and English language enforcement on the truck freight market,” he said.

Equipment and Driver Supply Getting Tighter

Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said the driver market is no longer oversupplied but not yet tight. According to ACT’s Driver Availability Index, a reading below 40 typically precedes rate increases, and the index is approaching that threshold again.

“The new rules on non-domiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one to two years, but heavy truck tariff costs are starting to constrain equipment capacity,” Denoyer said.

Class 8 production data backs that up. Denoyer noted that tractor builds are expected to fall roughly 35% in the second half of the year, dropping several thousand units per month below what fleets need to maintain size.

ACT Research believes that reduced capacity combined with steady freight demand could speed up the next market cycle and lead to new for-hire opportunities.
However, Denoyer cautioned, this recovery will not happen overnight. “This transformation will take time,” he said.

For drivers and carriers who have weathered the slow freight cycle, these tightening conditions may signal that a long-awaited rebound is finally taking shape, one load at a time.

Image Source: Commercial Carrier Journal, ATA

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

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The rebound was stronger than analysts anticipated.

“The 11% m/m gain was better than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said Steve Tam, vice president at ACT. “August is typically the second-best sales month of the year, running more than 8% above average. The auction market turned in a respectable performance that was counter to its expected decline. Auction volumes floated 3.4% higher m/m in August. The wholesale channel saw its largest sequential gain since February 2024 in August, adding 35% m/m. Combined, total market same dealer sales volumes climbed 11% m/m in August.”

Those increases across wholesale, retail, and auction channels hint that fleet buyers and dealers may finally be shaking off months of hesitation tied to freight demand, rates, and economic uncertainty.

Tam added that the timing aligns with historic trends, even if the broader economy feels unpredictable right now.

“Even though summer does not officially end until late September, used truck sales typically exit the summer (and spring) doldrums in August,” he said. “Clearly, August did not disappoint this year, at least from a unit volume perspective. Industry participants should interpret this as a positive sign, especially in light of all the noise in the economy and commercial vehicle market these days.”

For dealers, carriers, and independent buyers, the August bump could be a welcome shift heading into the fourth quarter, especially after months of sliding volumes and flat pricing. Whether this momentum holds will depend on freight conditions, interest rates, and inventory availability heading into fall and winter.

Source: The Trucker

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The trucking market is inching closer to achieving equilibrium, as trends in freight demand and capacity begin to stabilize after years of significant upheaval, according to industry experts.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain landscape was heavily disrupted by a shift in consumer spending towards goods rather than services. This change caused an extraordinary surge in freight demand, which led to higher rates and an influx of new drivers into the industry. However, the eventual market downturn created excess capacity, leaving carriers scrambling to fill trucks.

“Broadly speaking, freight demand trends are gradually improving,” explained Carter Vieth, research associate at ACT Research. “The threat of another ILA dockworkers’ strike on January 15 has likely caused shippers to pull freight forward, and with tariffs on the horizon following the election, the pull-forward in freight is expected to accelerate further.”

ACT Research Data Highlights Steady Progress

Recent data from ACT Research indicates modest but promising signs of recovery. Its volume index rose by 7.4 points to 56.9 in October, while the capacity index dropped slightly by 1.1 points to 49.7. These changes boosted the supply-demand balance index to 57.2 points from 48.8 the previous month, suggesting a gradual return to a healthier market balance.

Market Dynamics and Key Observations

Despite this progress, Michael Castagnetto, president of North American Surface Transportation operations at C.H. Robinson, points to sustained oversupply in the market. “The trucking market is in a kind of limbo,” Castagnetto said. “I’d call it a state of stable, sustained oversupply. Freight demand hasn’t had many catalysts for growth.”

Castagnetto highlighted flat industrial production, slow housing starts, and reduced consumer spending as key factors behind the sluggish demand. However, modern technologies have enabled carriers to find freight opportunities more efficiently, helping many smaller operators stay afloat.

“One of the clearest signs of the state of the market is route guide depth,” Castagnetto added. “Typically, a sustained increase in route guide depth over several months would indicate the market is tightening and carriers could afford to be choosier about the freight they accept. Instead, our statistics show that route guide depth has remained flat.”

Optimism Among Carriers

According to a survey conducted by Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence on November 12, owner-operators and small fleets are starting to see some signs of improvement in the market. The survey noted that 6% more carriers expect spot rates to increase over the next three to six months, while 7% anticipate higher volumes.

However, not all news is positive. “Despite greater optimism over the outlook, more carriers expressed an intent to leave the business than in our prior survey,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “An acceleration in carrier exits could speed up the market’s return to equilibrium and provide a better backdrop for rates next year.”

Achieving Market Stability

Jacob Faunce, carrier relations manager of procurement at E2open, highlighted the complex factors at play in re-balancing the trucking market. “We are completely balanced right now in the market,” Faunce said. He noted that the closure of Yellow in July, which shed 34,000 jobs, has contributed to the adjustments in supply. “If you look back at market intelligence reports, it looks like that between July and August, we shed about 37,000 jobs.”

Another critical factor, according to Faunce, is the entry of new drivers who obtained their commercial driver licenses during the pandemic. While retail sales growth and continued volumes from regions like Asia and South America have contributed to steady demand, he expects significant rate adjustments in the near future.

“As carriers have been reducing the number of trucks in their fleets, large and small, and carriers have been exiting the market, they’ve been chasing this elusive demand that’s been moving sideways,” observed Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. “It’s been like a moving target all year where capacity’s been trying to rebalance itself to where demand is, but demand has been really elusive.”

Croke attributed this uncertainty to factors such as high interest rates, shifts in consumer spending, and decreased home construction. However, he noted that some positive signs are emerging, including returning seasonality and improved market predictability. Year-over-year rates also began to edge upward in October.

“Even in November, we’ll lose another 7,000 carriers,” Croke added. “We’ve been averaging about 7,000 carriers exiting the market all year, every month. And that just speaks to this massive influx that came in 2021 and 2022. And by my accounts of the 480,000 carriers that have joined since June of 2020, 18% are still active in the market, and that’s extraordinary.”

Source: Transport Topics

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In June, the Volume Index experienced a notable decline, dropping 5.5 points to settle at 48.9 (seasonally adjusted), down from last month’s Roadcheck-boosted figure of 54.4. “Volumes have been fairly flat this year, but they’ve improved to ‘less bad’ on a y/y basis, with the index averaging 48.8 through the first half of this year, versus 42.8 last year,” commented Carter Vieth, a research analyst at ACT Research. He also highlighted that despite the financial strain on consumers, “real U.S. retail sales are up 1.8% YTD,” and the easing of inflation supports expectations for real income growth. Positive trends in intermodal and import volumes are contributing minimally to the total surface freight volumes, while a slowdown in U.S. Class 8 tractor sales points to a deceleration in private fleet growth, indicating that private fleet insourcing may be impacting for-hire demand.

While some progress is noticeable, the overall data on truckload volume remains erratic, with both the Cass Freight Index and DAT spot loads currently hovering at cyclic lows.

The Capacity Index saw a month-over-month increase of 3.6 points, climbing to 49.3 in June from 45.6 in May. “Though the index increased m/m, this month’s reading marks the 12th month in a row capacity has been below 50, the longest streak of decline since the inception of the survey in late 2009,” Vieth mentioned. He noted that a slower rate of capacity contraction signifies a narrowing supply-demand balance between fleets and freight. With the ongoing downturn and persistently weak fundamentals, the prospect of capacity turning positive in the near future remains dim, particularly as sales of US tractors continue to trend downward.

The Supply-Demand Balance Index fell to 49.6 (seasonally adjusted) in June, a decrease from 58.7 in May, primarily due to diminishing freight volumes alongside rising fleet capacity. “Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, is resulting in a longer leadup to higher market rates than in past cycles,” Vieth concluded. He emphasized that with capacity concerns persisting, monitoring overall equipment purchasing trends will be crucial, as sustained demand-side freight growth may continue to support market balance.

Source: The Trucker

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