Freight rates and shipping volumes did not move in the same direction across August’s major industry reports. That distinction matters for drivers and fleets trying to judge whether the trucking market is entering a lasting recovery.

The American Trucking Associations’ For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.5% from July to August and was 1.6% below its August 2025 level. The index tracks the weight of freight hauled by for-hire carriers, so its decline points to continued weakness in that part of the market.

A separate measure offered a more encouraging reading. The Cass Freight Index showed shipments rising 5.6% from July and 2.1% from a year earlier. That was its first annual increase since January 2023. Cass cautioned that the gain largely offset declines in the preceding months, making it too early to call it a major improvement in freight demand.

Pricing presents a clearer picture of a tighter market. Cass reported that its truckload linehaul index rose 11.3% year over year in August. The Logistics Managers’ Index also showed transportation prices rising while transportation capacity continued to contract.

Together, these reports suggest that reduced available capacity is helping support rates, even though freight volumes have not shown consistent growth. For drivers, that means headlines about improving rates may not reflect the number of loads available in every market or freight segment.

Consumer spending remains another factor to watch. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 89.4 in August, while its measure of expectations for the next six months fell to 68.2. Consumer confidence does not directly measure freight, but spending decisions can influence future shipment volumes.

For now, higher rates alone do not tell the full story of trucking’s recovery. Sustained growth in shipments would offer a stronger sign that demand is improving alongside pricing.

The TDUSA editorial team creates practical, driver focused content covering trucking news, industry updates, safety, regulations, and career information for professional truck drivers across the United States. Each article is built to reflect real world experience, industry developments, and information drivers can use on and off the road.

Last Updated: September 30, 2026

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Market Uncertainty Driving Demand for Clearer Direction

Freight markets have remained difficult to read, with changing demand, capacity swings, and broader economic pressure making it harder to plan ahead. Companies are often forced to react instead of getting out in front of changes.

FTR says those conditions are shaping the focus of this year’s conference, with an emphasis on turning market signals into decisions that can actually be applied in day to day operations.

What the Conference Will Focus On

The sessions will center on breaking down larger economic trends and translating them into practical takeaways. Topics will include freight demand patterns, equipment cycles, and capacity shifts across multiple modes.

The content will be built around FTR’s Freight•cast forecasting approach, which is used to project where the market is heading and how different segments may respond.

Tracks Built Around Key Segments

The event is structured so attendees can focus on the areas that matter most to their operation.

• Truck sessions begin Aug. 31 with equipment trends, followed by freight market conditions on Sept. 1
• Freight focused sessions will cover truck freight on Sept. 1 and rail freight on Sept. 2
• Rail sessions will look at demand on Sept. 2 and equipment outlooks on Sept. 3

This setup allows participants to move between topics depending on where they need the most insight.

More Than Just Market Data

Beyond the sessions, the conference is expected to bring together decision makers from across trucking, rail, and intermodal operations. That mix creates an opportunity to compare how different parts of the supply chain are reacting to the same market conditions.

Why It Matters Right Now

With freight patterns continuing to shift, having a clearer read on where things may be headed can impact everything from equipment purchases to load planning. Events like this are designed to help connect the dots between what is happening now and what may come next.

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“Join us Feb. 28 – March 3 at the Gaylord Palms in Orlando, Fla., for the truckload industry’s premier event,” TCA said. “From high-impact sessions like this to unmatched networking and celebration of our members, there’s no better place to prepare for the year ahead.” 

Costello is widely regarded as one of the most reliable voices on trucking economics. His session will cover key topics like freight demand, rate trends, consumer spending, inflation pressures, and how global markets can impact U.S. trucking. Drivers and carriers attending will walk away with insights to help plan routes, negotiate rates, and make smarter decisions for 2026. 

“Bob will unpack the trends shaping truckload in the year ahead,” TCA said. “From freight demand and rates to consumer spending, inflation pressures, and the broader global economy. His insights will help you anticipate challenges, identify opportunities, and align your strategy with the realities of today’s market.” 

Truckload 2026 also promises entertainment and networking beyond the economic sessions. NFL legend Jimmy Johnson will give the keynote, while Sugar Ray will close out the event with a live performance. Attendees can combine industry learning with a chance to relax and connect with peers from across the country. 

For truck drivers, small fleet operators, and dispatchers, sessions like Costello’s aren’t just numbers on a chart. They provide practical information that can affect pay, freight planning, and business decisions for the year ahead. 

Source: The Trucker 

Image: American Trucking Associations

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Texas:

Texas is often the top state where CDL drivers find consistent freight due to its vast economy and extensive highway network. The state hosts major ports, large manufacturing centers, and a booming energy sector that consistently generates freight loads for local, regional, and long-haul drivers. Texas truckers benefit from a mix of diverse route options and truck-friendly regulations that support steady work.

Florida:

Drivers in Florida enjoy robust freight demand, particularly around its busy seaports and distribution centers. The mild climate supports year-round driving with fewer weather interruptions, and the state’s advantageous location for import-export traffic helps maintain a constant flow of freight. This makes Florida attractive for CDL drivers seeking dependable and recurring job opportunities.

Tennessee:

Known as a transportation hub linking the Southeast, Midwest, and East Coast, Tennessee offers strategic freight opportunities. Its extensive interstate system and lower fuel costs contribute to consistent routes and affordable operating expenses. With a strong mix of automotive, agriculture, and distribution industries, Tennessee provides both local and long-haul freight options that keep drivers busy.

North Carolina:

North Carolina has become a hot spot for freight due to investments in highways and a flourishing manufacturing sector. This state supports a variety of trucking jobs with steady freight needs for diverse industries, making it a promising location for both new and experienced CDL drivers. The improved infrastructure helps drivers cover routes efficiently and consistently.

Ohio:

Ohio’s central location in the Midwest places it at the crossroads of major freight corridors connecting the East Coast and interior states. The state offers a combination of local and regional freight for CDL drivers, fueled by distribution centers, manufacturing plants, and an active agricultural economy. Ohio’s emphasis on workforce development also supports stable employment opportunities for truckers.

Why These States Deliver Consistent Freight

• Robust and diverse economies that produce continuous freight demand
• Well-maintained highways and logistics hubs that facilitate quick and reliable deliveries
• Favorable regulatory environments and driver support services
• Proximity to major markets and ports reduces deadhead miles and increases efficiency

For CDL drivers focused on securing regular freight and building a long-lasting career, targeting these states can lead to more job stability and frequent load opportunities. Utilizing specialized job boards like TruckDriversUSA allows drivers to filter and connect with current openings tailored to their location preferences and route types.

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Confidence Amid Market Uncertainty

“Many carriers and brokers remained optimistic through the first half of 2025 despite facing difficulties,” said Todd Markusic, customer insights manager at Truckstop.com. “While the freight market underperformed in the second quarter, with no clear resolution for how tariffs will impact the economy, many in the industry are expecting a recovery in the next six months.”

Survey data reflects a mix of resilience and caution:

• 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers believe shipment volumes will either remain steady or grow before year’s end.
• Only 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reported year-over-year revenue growth, showing a dip from earlier in the year.

Carrier Trends

For carriers, the past quarter delivered modest gains in certain areas:

• 17% saw rate improvements over Q2 2024.
• 42% anticipate rate increases in Q3, down from Q1 optimism.
• 56% reported load volumes in Q2 2025 that were on par with or higher than last year.

Despite uncertainty about when rates will bottom out, 84% expect stability or growth in the next six months, and 79% project steady or improved revenues during that time.

Broker Outlook

Brokers expressed a slightly stronger pricing outlook:

• 39% reported higher spot rates compared to the first half of 2024.
• 78% saw growth in contract rates.
• 72% said revenues held steady or increased in the first half of this year.

Expectations for the rest of 2025 are generally positive, with 84% predicting spot rates will stay steady or rise, and 80% expecting the same for contract rates. Additionally, 69% said their current 15% gross margin outperforms both halves of last year, with 82% anticipating margins will hold or improve.

Demand Expectations

When it comes to freight demand:

• 19% of carriers and 37% of brokers saw year-over-year growth in loads.
• 52% of carriers expect higher demand over the next three to six months.
• 83% of brokers believe volume will at least remain steady.

Cost Pressures Affecting Investment

Rising costs and tariff concerns are influencing spending plans:

• Only 21% of carriers plan to buy new equipment this year, down from 38% in Q1.
• 40% of brokers intend to expand their workforce in 2025, compared to 52% last December.
• 38% of carriers believe tariffs will significantly harm the industry, an increase from 30% in Q1.

Overall, 55% of respondents anticipate some level of negative impact from tariffs. Broker confidence in the current administration has dropped sharply, from 74% in December to 44% now.

Job Satisfaction Remains Mostly Steady

Job satisfaction has held relatively firm despite market headwinds:

• Broker satisfaction fell slightly, from 83% in December to 78%.
• Carrier satisfaction declined from 65% in Q1 to 54%.
• Just 10% of carriers are thinking about leaving the industry, nearly unchanged from Q1’s 9%.

About the Surveys

The carrier survey included 204 companies, with 75% operating five or fewer trucks. Flatbed carriers represented 49% of the sample. The broker survey included 185 respondents—ranging from freight forwarders and 3PLs to broker agents and asset-based firms—with 68% working at companies with 1–50 employees.

Source: The Trucker

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The trucking market is inching closer to achieving equilibrium, as trends in freight demand and capacity begin to stabilize after years of significant upheaval, according to industry experts.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain landscape was heavily disrupted by a shift in consumer spending towards goods rather than services. This change caused an extraordinary surge in freight demand, which led to higher rates and an influx of new drivers into the industry. However, the eventual market downturn created excess capacity, leaving carriers scrambling to fill trucks.

“Broadly speaking, freight demand trends are gradually improving,” explained Carter Vieth, research associate at ACT Research. “The threat of another ILA dockworkers’ strike on January 15 has likely caused shippers to pull freight forward, and with tariffs on the horizon following the election, the pull-forward in freight is expected to accelerate further.”

ACT Research Data Highlights Steady Progress

Recent data from ACT Research indicates modest but promising signs of recovery. Its volume index rose by 7.4 points to 56.9 in October, while the capacity index dropped slightly by 1.1 points to 49.7. These changes boosted the supply-demand balance index to 57.2 points from 48.8 the previous month, suggesting a gradual return to a healthier market balance.

Market Dynamics and Key Observations

Despite this progress, Michael Castagnetto, president of North American Surface Transportation operations at C.H. Robinson, points to sustained oversupply in the market. “The trucking market is in a kind of limbo,” Castagnetto said. “I’d call it a state of stable, sustained oversupply. Freight demand hasn’t had many catalysts for growth.”

Castagnetto highlighted flat industrial production, slow housing starts, and reduced consumer spending as key factors behind the sluggish demand. However, modern technologies have enabled carriers to find freight opportunities more efficiently, helping many smaller operators stay afloat.

“One of the clearest signs of the state of the market is route guide depth,” Castagnetto added. “Typically, a sustained increase in route guide depth over several months would indicate the market is tightening and carriers could afford to be choosier about the freight they accept. Instead, our statistics show that route guide depth has remained flat.”

Optimism Among Carriers

According to a survey conducted by Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence on November 12, owner-operators and small fleets are starting to see some signs of improvement in the market. The survey noted that 6% more carriers expect spot rates to increase over the next three to six months, while 7% anticipate higher volumes.

However, not all news is positive. “Despite greater optimism over the outlook, more carriers expressed an intent to leave the business than in our prior survey,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “An acceleration in carrier exits could speed up the market’s return to equilibrium and provide a better backdrop for rates next year.”

Achieving Market Stability

Jacob Faunce, carrier relations manager of procurement at E2open, highlighted the complex factors at play in re-balancing the trucking market. “We are completely balanced right now in the market,” Faunce said. He noted that the closure of Yellow in July, which shed 34,000 jobs, has contributed to the adjustments in supply. “If you look back at market intelligence reports, it looks like that between July and August, we shed about 37,000 jobs.”

Another critical factor, according to Faunce, is the entry of new drivers who obtained their commercial driver licenses during the pandemic. While retail sales growth and continued volumes from regions like Asia and South America have contributed to steady demand, he expects significant rate adjustments in the near future.

“As carriers have been reducing the number of trucks in their fleets, large and small, and carriers have been exiting the market, they’ve been chasing this elusive demand that’s been moving sideways,” observed Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. “It’s been like a moving target all year where capacity’s been trying to rebalance itself to where demand is, but demand has been really elusive.”

Croke attributed this uncertainty to factors such as high interest rates, shifts in consumer spending, and decreased home construction. However, he noted that some positive signs are emerging, including returning seasonality and improved market predictability. Year-over-year rates also began to edge upward in October.

“Even in November, we’ll lose another 7,000 carriers,” Croke added. “We’ve been averaging about 7,000 carriers exiting the market all year, every month. And that just speaks to this massive influx that came in 2021 and 2022. And by my accounts of the 480,000 carriers that have joined since June of 2020, 18% are still active in the market, and that’s extraordinary.”

Source: Transport Topics

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The industry has faced hurdles of over-capacity and low demand since the pandemic, and Costello admitted feeling “snake bitten” by a recovery that seemed elusive. “We haven’t seen normal since the pre-pandemic,” he explained. “Every cycle is different, this one included.”

While the overall economy is slowing, Costello reassured that a recession seems unlikely. Key drivers of truck freight are stabilizing, with some even showing signs of improvement. He anticipates a 2% rise in manufacturing output across sectors like chemicals and primary metals next year, with computers expected to see a 6% boost.

Consumer Behavior and Economic Trends

Post-pandemic, consumer spending shifted towards experiences over goods, but Costello observed a reversion back to pre-pandemic norms. Although housing remains challenging due to interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve has begun reducing rates, albeit with long-term effects. “It takes a long time for decreases to work their way through the economy,” he noted.

The job market is also loosening, with monthly additions of 200,000 jobs and sustained low unemployment rates. Costello highlighted that there is approximately one job available per unemployed individual, boosting the Fed’s confidence to continue lowering rates. While fixed mortgage rates are declining, he cautioned against expecting drastic changes. “It’s not going to come down as much or as fast as the Fed Funds rate,” he remarked.

Looking ahead, Costello anticipates an uptick in home sales by 2025, with steady single-family housing starts and moderate growth in non-residential construction. Wage growth remains steady, contributing to increased purchasing power. However, he warned about record household credit card debt, which may hinder spending despite favorable delinquency rates.

Inflation has reduced to 2.4%, yet the cost of goods remains elevated, up 22% since 2020. This shift in consumer focus from services back to goods could stimulate freight movement. “Let’s go ahead and buy something,” Costello encouraged. “Remember, we haven’t bought goods in a while.”

Freight and Supply Chain Dynamics

Though freight recovery has been slow, Costello noticed signs of progress. Private fleets expanded during the pandemic, reducing available freight for hire, but as recovery continues, some carriers might exit the industry. Lenders are poised to demand repayments, potentially pushing fleets out as used truck valuations improve.

The digitization of freight has provided temporary relief to carriers, enabling quicker cash flow, albeit with negative margins. However, Costello warned that “eventually, it’s going to run out.”

While supply remains high, demand hasn’t risen enough to feel its impacts. Costello emphasized, “More companies need to fail.”

Since December 2022, around 34,000 carriers have left the market, often joining larger operators. This gradual supply-demand balance could mitigate driver shortages as freight demand rebounds.

Market and Political Pressures

The trucking industry faces pressures from both market conditions and rising costs. Revenue per mile has decreased significantly, while driver wages and operational costs hit record highs, up 35% compared to a 16% revenue increase.

Despite these challenges, Costello sees potential improvement in truck freight segments.

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

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