Confidence Amid Market Uncertainty

“Many carriers and brokers remained optimistic through the first half of 2025 despite facing difficulties,” said Todd Markusic, customer insights manager at Truckstop.com. “While the freight market underperformed in the second quarter, with no clear resolution for how tariffs will impact the economy, many in the industry are expecting a recovery in the next six months.”

Survey data reflects a mix of resilience and caution:

• 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers believe shipment volumes will either remain steady or grow before year’s end.
• Only 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reported year-over-year revenue growth, showing a dip from earlier in the year.

Carrier Trends

For carriers, the past quarter delivered modest gains in certain areas:

• 17% saw rate improvements over Q2 2024.
• 42% anticipate rate increases in Q3, down from Q1 optimism.
• 56% reported load volumes in Q2 2025 that were on par with or higher than last year.

Despite uncertainty about when rates will bottom out, 84% expect stability or growth in the next six months, and 79% project steady or improved revenues during that time.

Broker Outlook

Brokers expressed a slightly stronger pricing outlook:

• 39% reported higher spot rates compared to the first half of 2024.
• 78% saw growth in contract rates.
• 72% said revenues held steady or increased in the first half of this year.

Expectations for the rest of 2025 are generally positive, with 84% predicting spot rates will stay steady or rise, and 80% expecting the same for contract rates. Additionally, 69% said their current 15% gross margin outperforms both halves of last year, with 82% anticipating margins will hold or improve.

Demand Expectations

When it comes to freight demand:

• 19% of carriers and 37% of brokers saw year-over-year growth in loads.
• 52% of carriers expect higher demand over the next three to six months.
• 83% of brokers believe volume will at least remain steady.

Cost Pressures Affecting Investment

Rising costs and tariff concerns are influencing spending plans:

• Only 21% of carriers plan to buy new equipment this year, down from 38% in Q1.
• 40% of brokers intend to expand their workforce in 2025, compared to 52% last December.
• 38% of carriers believe tariffs will significantly harm the industry, an increase from 30% in Q1.

Overall, 55% of respondents anticipate some level of negative impact from tariffs. Broker confidence in the current administration has dropped sharply, from 74% in December to 44% now.

Job Satisfaction Remains Mostly Steady

Job satisfaction has held relatively firm despite market headwinds:

• Broker satisfaction fell slightly, from 83% in December to 78%.
• Carrier satisfaction declined from 65% in Q1 to 54%.
• Just 10% of carriers are thinking about leaving the industry, nearly unchanged from Q1’s 9%.

About the Surveys

The carrier survey included 204 companies, with 75% operating five or fewer trucks. Flatbed carriers represented 49% of the sample. The broker survey included 185 respondents—ranging from freight forwarders and 3PLs to broker agents and asset-based firms—with 68% working at companies with 1–50 employees.

Source: The Trucker

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Trucking: The Backbone of U.S. Freight

The numbers don’t lie—trucking remains the heavyweight champion of freight transportation. Bob Costello, ATA’s Chief Economist, highlighted the industry’s dominant position:
“In this edition of Forecast, the trucking industry continues to dominate the freight transportation industry in terms of both tonnage and revenue, comprising 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “We project that market share to hold over the next decade as the country continues to rely on trucking to move the vast majority of freight.”

Key Takeaways from the ATA Forecast

The report offers a clear look at what’s ahead for the freight industry:

• Trucking’s Continued Growth
  Truck tonnage is expected to climb from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to nearly 14 billion tons by 2035. Revenue growth will follow, increasing from $906 billion to an impressive $1.46 trillion by the end of the forecast period.
• Shifts in Rail Freight
  Railroads are expected to see their market share shrink slightly, dropping from 10.6% in 2024 to 9.9% by 2035. That said, intermodal rail will see modest annual growth rates of 2.9% through 2030 and 2.8% from 2031 to 2035.
• Opportunities in Other Freight Sectors
  Air cargo, waterborne transportation, and pipelines are all set to grow, playing a complementary role in the freight network alongside trucking.

Why It Matters

Chris Spear, ATA President and CEO, emphasized the importance of understanding these trends:
“Knowledge is power, and the information in Freight Forecast is an enabler for the leaders who shape our industry,” he explained. “Understanding the trends in our supply chain should be key for policymakers in Washington, in statehouses around the country and wherever decisions are being made that affect trucking and our economy.”

A Brighter Road Ahead

The future of trucking looks promising, with steady growth and an unwavering role in moving the nation’s goods. Armed with insights from the ATA forecast, industry leaders and policymakers can make smarter decisions, ensuring they’re ready to tackle the opportunities and challenges of the coming years.

Source: The Trucker

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