While the increase points to some stabilization, overall freight levels remain subdued compared to recent years.

Freight Volumes Improve but Remain Soft

ATA’s advanced seasonally adjusted For Hire Truck Tonnage Index reached 112.9 in December, up from 112.4 in November. The index uses 2015 as its base year at 100 and reflects changes in tonnage hauled by for-hire carriers.

December’s reading represented a 0.9 percent increase compared with the same month in 2024, after year-over-year declines in September and October. Despite that improvement, freight activity for the quarter showed continued weakness.

“For the fourth quarter, the index average fell 1.8% from the third quarter, the largest sequential quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2023, and was down 0.3% from the final three months in 2024,” ATA said.

The seasonally adjusted gain for November remained unchanged from what ATA first reported in its December 23 press release.

Economic Headwinds Continue to Weigh on Freight

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said broader economic conditions are still limiting freight growth, even with back-to-back monthly gains.

“Despite two consecutive gains, tonnage remains at low levels as the freight metric contracted a total of 2.7% in September and October,” Costello said. “Soft manufacturing and construction activity are continuing to suppress freight levels, as they did for much of last year. For 2025 in total, tonnage rose just 0.1% over the 2024 average, although it was the first annual gain since 2022.”

Those sectors play a major role in freight demand, and continued softness there has kept trucking volumes from rebounding more strongly.

Raw Tonnage Shows Sharper Month-to-Month Jump

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, which reflects raw changes in freight hauled, the index showed a larger month to month increase. The not seasonally adjusted index rose to 111.9 in December, compared with 107.3 in November, a 4.3 percent increase.

Seasonal shipping patterns often drive larger swings in the raw data at the end of the year, particularly around holiday-related freight.

What the Data Signals Going Into 2026

For truck drivers and industry stakeholders, December’s numbers suggest freight conditions may be stabilizing after a volatile fall, but not yet strengthening in a meaningful way. The modest gains point to slow forward momentum rather than a sharp recovery.

ATA’s data reinforces that freight demand entering 2026 remains closely tied to broader economic performance, particularly in manufacturing and construction sectors that will continue to shape trucking volumes in the months ahead.

Source: The Trucker

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“Join us Feb. 28 – March 3 at the Gaylord Palms in Orlando, Fla., for the truckload industry’s premier event,” TCA said. “From high-impact sessions like this to unmatched networking and celebration of our members, there’s no better place to prepare for the year ahead.” 

Costello is widely regarded as one of the most reliable voices on trucking economics. His session will cover key topics like freight demand, rate trends, consumer spending, inflation pressures, and how global markets can impact U.S. trucking. Drivers and carriers attending will walk away with insights to help plan routes, negotiate rates, and make smarter decisions for 2026. 

“Bob will unpack the trends shaping truckload in the year ahead,” TCA said. “From freight demand and rates to consumer spending, inflation pressures, and the broader global economy. His insights will help you anticipate challenges, identify opportunities, and align your strategy with the realities of today’s market.” 

Truckload 2026 also promises entertainment and networking beyond the economic sessions. NFL legend Jimmy Johnson will give the keynote, while Sugar Ray will close out the event with a live performance. Attendees can combine industry learning with a chance to relax and connect with peers from across the country. 

For truck drivers, small fleet operators, and dispatchers, sessions like Costello’s aren’t just numbers on a chart. They provide practical information that can affect pay, freight planning, and business decisions for the year ahead. 

Source: The Trucker 

Image: American Trucking Associations

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According to ATRI’s 2025 report, the freight recession that started nearly three years ago is still weighing heavily on the industry. More than 4,200 people took part in the survey, including over 1,000 drivers and carriers who said the economy is the biggest issue affecting their work.

“Now three years into a historic freight recession, freight rates and tonnage have remained stagnant across the trucking industry at the same time that per-mile costs increased considerably faster than inflation, a perfect storm that is squeezing fleet operating margins and necessitating extensive cost-cutting measures,” ATRI wrote in its report. “Total trucking employment and driver employment specifically continued to fall year over year amid layoffs, market exits, and bankruptcies. Unfortunately, the challenging economic conditions keep these freight capacity reductions from translating into improved rates.”

For the third year in a row, the economy was ranked as the top concern across the industry. It has become clear that drivers and carriers alike are struggling to stay profitable while operating costs keep climbing.

Rising Costs and Fewer Loads

Drivers on the road every day have seen it firsthand. Freight has been slow, spot market rates have dipped, and steady runs are harder to come by. The cost of fuel, insurance, and maintenance has not backed down either, which means many fleets are doing more with less. Some have even shut down or cut routes to stay afloat.

ATRI’s data mirrors what truckers have been talking about for months. After years of higher pay and strong freight demand, the market has cooled to the point that even large carriers are tightening their budgets.

What Truckers Are Most Concerned About

The survey showed that concerns stretch far beyond just rates and loads. Lawsuit abuse reform and insurance costs jumped ahead of other issues this year, showing how expensive it has become to operate a truck safely and legally. Truck parking, which ranked second in 2024, fell to fourth on the 2025 list.

Here are ATRI’s overall top 10 issues for 2025:

1. Economy
2. Lawsuit abuse reform
3. Insurance cost and availability
4. Truck parking
5. Driver compensation
6. CSA
7. English language proficiency
8. Diesel emission regulations
9. Driver training standards
10. AI in trucking

About 46 percent of survey respondents were from motor carriers, 30 percent were truck drivers, and the rest were other freight stakeholders.

Drivers and Carriers See the Market Differently

While everyone agrees that money is the biggest concern, the way each group views the challenges is slightly different. Drivers placed compensation as their top issue, while motor carriers focused on the economy as a whole. Both groups pointed to new technology, regulations, and detention delays as growing frustrations.

2025 Top Concerns for Truck Drivers:

1. Driver compensation
2. Truck parking
3. English language proficiency for drivers
4. Broker issues
5. Detention and delays at customer facilities
6. AI in trucking
7. Driver training standards
8. Autonomous trucks
9. ELD mandate
10. Diesel emission regulations

Motor Carrier Top Concerns for 2025:

1. Economy
2. Lawsuit abuse reform
3. Insurance cost and availability
4. CSA
5. Driver shortage
6. Driver retention
7. Driver distraction
8. Diesel emission regulations
9. Truck parking
10. Broker issues

Life on the Road Reflects the Data

The report may come from spreadsheets and survey responses, but the story it tells is one every driver already lives. When freight slows down, everyone feels it. For drivers who are paid by the mile, every empty trailer and canceled load adds stress. For carriers, keeping trucks running and drivers paid without solid freight rates is a constant balancing act.

Until freight demand rebounds, the numbers from ATRI will likely stay the same. For now, truckers continue to grind through one of the toughest markets in recent memory, hoping the road ahead brings better rates and more stability for everyone behind the wheel.

Source: Land Line Media

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“I really thought we were coming out [of the freight recession] as an industry,” Costello said. “The economy as a whole was slowing down before the tariffs, but the things that drive truck freight were moving in the opposite direction. I thought things were going to get better.”

That brief optimism has since been shaken. A fresh round of tariffs from the Trump administration has thrown new pressure onto the freight economy, threatening to disrupt the fragile recovery that had only just begun. While the administration’s approach may be aimed at strengthening American manufacturing long term, Costello said the near-term consequences will be higher prices and tighter supply chains.

He noted that more than 70 countries have shown interest in negotiating trade agreements in response to last week’s tariffs, and there’s still a chance that some of the measures could be reversed or restructured. For Costello, that would be the best-case scenario. The markets briefly reflected that hope, bouncing slightly on Tuesday. He believes a targeted tariff strategy would be far more effective than broad, sweeping actions and could help ease the uncertainty that’s been creeping into economic forecasts.

“If the administration backed off quickly and said they got what they wanted, it would help us get back on track to where we were hoping to be,” he said.

Costello said he spent last Friday revising most of the key economic indicators impacting truck freight, adjusting expectations for 2025 from modest growth to stagnation or outright contraction. What had been a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year now points to flat or even declining performance across multiple fronts. Before the tariffs were announced, ATA had forecast U.S. GDP to grow by 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly growth at 1.2%, 1.6%, and 2.1%. As of Friday, those numbers have dropped to 0.3% for the year, and 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0% for the final three quarters.

The outlook for freight-related sectors isn’t faring any better. Factory output, originally expected to rise by 1.3% this year and 2.5% in 2026, is now forecast to decline by 1.0% and 0.8%. Previously projected to grow by over 2.0%, consumer spending on goods has been slashed to just 0.5% in 2025 and 0.6%. Even housing starts have taken a hit. Still, Costello urged the TRALA audience not to treat the latest numbers as set in stone. With tariff decisions evolving so quickly, the ATA has started time-stamping all of its forecasts. Any shift in trade policy—positive or negative—could immediately make the current data irrelevant.

Despite the volatility, Costello hasn’t ruled out a rebound. He emphasized that conditions were genuinely improving before the latest policy shifts. “Excluding the tariffs for a moment, things were starting to move in the right direction. It was going to get a little bit better and fleets were going to feel a little bit better,” he said.

Costello also flagged another possible future disruption—one tied to an ongoing investigation into Chinese shipbuilding and maritime practices. Earlier this year, the Trump administration released recommendations from the Biden-era U.S. Trade Representative that call for steep port call fees, ranging from $1 million to $3 million per entry, for Chinese-linked ships. These proposed penalties, aimed at curbing what the USTR labeled unfair trade practices, could severely impact the flow of imports into U.S. ports if enacted. However, Costello noted that the administration may reconsider the timing and scale of those fees amid industry pushback.

While the trucking industry just endured one of its longest freight recessions on record—27 months of sluggish conditions—Costello fears another downturn could be far more damaging. Many carriers were only just starting to regain their footing. “If another recession hits right now, it could be devastating for carriers who were finally starting to swim again after years of treading water,” he said.

For now, trucking’s path forward remains deeply tied to Washington’s decisions. Costello’s message was clear: the ingredients for recovery are still there, but so is the risk of letting it all unravel.

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

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“After a scant 0.1% decline in January, which wasn’t bad considering the harsh winter weather and California wildfires, truck tonnage had a robust gain in February,” said Bob Costello, Chief Economist at the ATA. “This outcome fits well with our growing optimism for the truck freight market after a two-year recession. Some of the gain in February was due to accelerated imports early in the year as shippers rushed to bring products into the U.S. before tariffs hit. Even accounting for this, the first two months of the year were positive, all things considered, indicating that the freight recovery has indeed begun.”

Tonnage Data Highlights

The advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose to 115.2 in February, up from the January reading of 111.9. Using 2015 as the base year (set at 100), the index also grew 0.6% compared to February 2024. This marks the second consecutive year-over-year increase, a milestone last achieved in early 2023.

However, the unadjusted index, which measures raw tonnage changes without seasonal adjustments, painted a slightly different picture. February saw a decline to 104.8, reflecting a 4.7% drop from January’s value of 110.0.

Building on these insights, the ATA recently updated its seasonally adjusted index, incorporating revisions spanning the last five years during its annual review process.

The Significance of Trucking in the Economy

The trucking industry remains a vital component of the U.S. economy and a reliable indicator of its overall health. Trucks are responsible for moving 72.7% of all domestic freight tonnage, carrying a wide range of goods, from retail products to manufactured materials.

Last year, the industry transported 11.27 billion tons of freight, generating $906 billion in revenue. This impressive figure accounts for 76.9% of earnings across all modes of transport.

The ATA’s tonnage index focuses on contract freight data, rather than the spot market, and is based on surveys conducted among its membership. These figures are preliminary and often revised in subsequent monthly reports, which include detailed analyses of trends and comparisons.

Source: Women in Trucking

Image Source: ATA, Women In Trucking

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If all registered trucks were active, the industry could generate an additional $47.4 billion annually, underscoring how costly this issue truly is.

The Scale of the Driver Deficit

The altLINE report analyzed data between November 22 and December 5, 2024, covering truck driver roles on Google for Jobs and salary statistics from platforms like LinkedIn, Indeed, Glassdoor, ZipRecruiter, Monster, and others.

While thousands of listings were found online—28,515 job postings specifically—the data revealed that the online job market captures only a fraction of available positions. A study by Zippia showed that just 25% of truck driving positions are advertised online, with most (70%) being filled through staffing firms, personal networks, and offline recruitment efforts.

On average, 7,213 trucking positions were advertised daily during the study period. This points to an enduring shortfall of around 24,043 drivers.

Jennifer Fink, Freight Factoring Operations Manager at altLINE and the report’s lead researcher, shared that “Multiply this by the reported $3,971 revenue per week for every truck that is not being manned, and we arrive at the true cost to the freight industry – $95.5 million every single week.”

Economic Potential of Fully Utilizing Trucks

The study also explored the economic potential if the trucking sector were to fully utilize its existing fleet. Using census data, it highlighted the disparity between available trucks and professional drivers.

For example, there are more than three times as many registered tractor trucks as hired drivers. Factoring in approximately 10.5 million additional heavy trucks in the U.S. magnifies the issue of unused equipment.

While straight trucks generate slightly less revenue per week than tractor trucks, their sheer numbers amplify the problem. Combined, this contributes to an additional $39.9 billion in estimated annual losses due to idle straight trucks—bringing the total weekly losses to nearly $50 million across all truck types.

“This number is merely hypothetical, but it is powerful in demonstrating the huge discrepancy in truck availability between truckers and drivers,” Fink said. “Millions of trucks sit idle in the U.S. every day, and each one represents a missed opportunity and losses for the freight industry and many more losses further down the supply chain.”

Regional Insights

Regional disparities also play a major role in the driver shortage crisis. Missouri tops the country for trucker demand, with approximately 202 job postings daily. Given that 70% of trucking positions remain unadvertised, the report estimates there are around 673 open roles in Missouri at any time.

Wyoming has the highest demand relative to its population, with one open trucker position per 1,031 residents. Meanwhile, Texas—despite its prominence in interstate trade—ranks fifth for overall driver vacancies. However, when adjusted for population, Texas shows a comparatively low trucker-to-job demand ratio, making it one of the most competitive states for securing drivers.

Nebraska stands out for its surplus of truckers, leading the nation in the speed of filling trucking roles.

Job Turnover and Recruitment Speed

The time it takes to fill truck driver jobs varies greatly across regions, highlighting local freight industry dynamics. Ohio boasts one of the quickest markets, with two-thirds of advertised truck driver jobs being filled or replaced daily. This results in an average recruitment time of just 3.6 days.

Nebraska excels even further, with an average hiring time of just 2.5 days, though this rapid rate is accompanied by a job turnover rate of 47%, indicating a significant backlog of unfilled positions.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Indiana has the slowest-moving trucker job market. With a daily turnover rate of just 21%, it takes nearly two weeks to fill positions, making it the most challenging state for addressing trucking vacancies.

The Bigger Picture

The truck driver shortage is not just a trucking industry problem; it sends ripples down the entire supply chain, causing inefficiencies, delays, and financial losses. Bridging this gap will require tackling key issues, including improving working conditions, increasing job visibility, and leveraging both offline and online recruitment strategies.

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

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The data for December identifies market conditions as stabilizing, with demand remaining flat, capacity finding equilibrium, rates trending upward, and operational costs steadying. For the second month in a row, the Foundation has maintained a neutral outlook for the near-term future but remains optimistic about a market rebound.

“As the number of owner-operators continues to increase, we believe the market will turn upward in early Q2 2025,” the Foundation stated.

Van Market Insights

The van market experienced mixed results in December, with half of all regions reporting declines in the market demand index. Spot rates saw little to no movement month-over-month but were anticipated to rise toward the end of the year. According to the Foundation, the divergence between spot rates and the three-year moving average highlights the current stage of the dry van market cycle.

Other noteworthy observations include:

• The inventory-to-sales ratio stayed unchanged.

• Household appliances continued their strong performance since late 2023.

• Retail sales, adjusted for seasonality, showed growth in electronics, appliances, and furniture sectors while declining for general merchandise.

Flatbed Market Outlook

Flatbed carriers operating in the Southeast and Mountain Central regions performed better in terms of freight ratios. However, spot rates for flatbeds experienced their 28th consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

Key flatbed market updates:

• After a brief uptick in August, the seasonally adjusted flatbed composite index dipped again in September.

• Federal interest rate cuts are expected to take months to impact the market indirectly, as they don’t directly influence mortgage rates.

• Inventory levels for building materials, garden equipment, and supplies remain a challenge, sitting 4% above 2019 levels. High inventory continues to hinder freight demand.

Reefer Market Trends

The reefer market faced an unusual decline in demand for December, a trend not typically seen during the end-of-year period. Despite this, spot rates posted gains and bounced back considerably from April 2023 lows.

Additional insights for the reefer market include:

• The Mexico-Texas region recorded the most substantial month-to-month increase in carrier pay-per-mile, according to the USDA.

• Eight regions reported significant dips in reefer volumes.

• Truck capacity saw tightening, contradicting lower volumes and rates. This anomaly suggests volume data may adjust positively next month.

Broader Trucking Market Analysis

The trucking market is simultaneously facing pressures and opportunities as various economic factors take shape.

• Private fleets are moderating demand within the for-hire market, but slowing private fleet growth and pre-tariff shipping could boost for-hire activity in the first half of 2025, according to the Cass Shipment Index.

• Class 8 truck sales—both new and used—declined slightly; however, used truck sales exceeded new sales for the 11th month in a row.

“Given that typical seasonality called for a decrease of 18% month-over-month, the small dip [in used sales] was a big win,” said Steve Tam, vice president at ACT Research.

• Transportation prices rose for the second-highest reading in two years, as indicated by the Logistics Managers’ Index, signaling that the freight market is nearing equilibrium.

Other economic factors shaping the trucking market include:

• Diesel prices have dropped $2.23 since their peak in June 2022, now showcasing much-needed relief for carriers.

• Slight increases in wages and salaries have been offset by a rising Consumer Price Index.

• Despite weak demand, supply chains remain adequately equipped, with shorter lead times reported. However, sporadic product shortages have emerged.

“A general construction slowdown in the fourth quarter has created a surplus of finished goods,” the OOIDA Foundation shared. “We are closely monitoring demand in Q1 to assess whether permanent workforce reductions may be necessary.”

For the full monthly and quarterly freight market updates, visit the OOIDA Foundation website.

Source: Land Line

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