The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its seasonally adjusted For Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.9% in September to 114.2, down from 115.3 in August. While that drop erased gains from earlier in the summer, tonnage is still 0.8% higher than September 2024, showing slow but steady improvement over the past year.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the data highlights just how uneven freight conditions remain.
“Tonnage levels remain choppy, but they are up 2.1% since hitting a low in January. Compared to the high three years earlier, however, truck tonnage is still off by 3.9%. In fact, September’s tonnage level was essentially the same as in September 2023, underscoring the tough freight market over the last few years,” Costello said.

Market Signals Are Shifting

Even though tonnage slipped, other signs suggest the market could be turning. FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) rose to a nearly neutral 0.3 in August after sitting at -1.03 in July. The TCI measures key factors like freight volume, rates, capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs to gauge the overall health of the market.

FTR said the latest gain came “primarily due to less challenging freight rates,” noting that while utilization improved slightly, it was not a major driver of the index change.

Looking ahead, FTR projects better conditions in 2026 and 2027, even though near-term readings will likely stay close to current levels.

Capacity Tightening Could Lead to Recovery

One of the biggest potential drivers of market recovery may come from tightening capacity. Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, said restrictions on issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) for foreign drivers could impact fleet capacity.

“The potential for a capacity-driven recovery in trucking has risen over the past month due to severe restrictions imposed on issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses for foreign drivers,” Vise said. “However, despite some anecdotal reports about various effects of a crackdown on immigrant drivers, available data has yet to show a substantial impact on market conditions.”

Vise previously noted that the FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL rule could push roughly 194,000 CDL holders out of the market over two years, a shift that might recreate the tight utilization levels seen in 2021.
“This would be very good for carriers, not very good for shippers,” he added.

Vise also pointed out that stepped-up enforcement from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement could add even more pressure on capacity, though the full impact is still unclear.

“We expect pressure on foreign drivers to be a significant factor for capacity in the coming months, but many questions remain about the scope and speed of the tighter CDL and English language enforcement on the truck freight market,” he said.

Equipment and Driver Supply Getting Tighter

Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said the driver market is no longer oversupplied but not yet tight. According to ACT’s Driver Availability Index, a reading below 40 typically precedes rate increases, and the index is approaching that threshold again.

“The new rules on non-domiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one to two years, but heavy truck tariff costs are starting to constrain equipment capacity,” Denoyer said.

Class 8 production data backs that up. Denoyer noted that tractor builds are expected to fall roughly 35% in the second half of the year, dropping several thousand units per month below what fleets need to maintain size.

ACT Research believes that reduced capacity combined with steady freight demand could speed up the next market cycle and lead to new for-hire opportunities.
However, Denoyer cautioned, this recovery will not happen overnight. “This transformation will take time,” he said.

For drivers and carriers who have weathered the slow freight cycle, these tightening conditions may signal that a long-awaited rebound is finally taking shape, one load at a time.

Image Source: Commercial Carrier Journal, ATA

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

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“I really thought we were coming out [of the freight recession] as an industry,” Costello said. “The economy as a whole was slowing down before the tariffs, but the things that drive truck freight were moving in the opposite direction. I thought things were going to get better.”

That brief optimism has since been shaken. A fresh round of tariffs from the Trump administration has thrown new pressure onto the freight economy, threatening to disrupt the fragile recovery that had only just begun. While the administration’s approach may be aimed at strengthening American manufacturing long term, Costello said the near-term consequences will be higher prices and tighter supply chains.

He noted that more than 70 countries have shown interest in negotiating trade agreements in response to last week’s tariffs, and there’s still a chance that some of the measures could be reversed or restructured. For Costello, that would be the best-case scenario. The markets briefly reflected that hope, bouncing slightly on Tuesday. He believes a targeted tariff strategy would be far more effective than broad, sweeping actions and could help ease the uncertainty that’s been creeping into economic forecasts.

“If the administration backed off quickly and said they got what they wanted, it would help us get back on track to where we were hoping to be,” he said.

Costello said he spent last Friday revising most of the key economic indicators impacting truck freight, adjusting expectations for 2025 from modest growth to stagnation or outright contraction. What had been a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year now points to flat or even declining performance across multiple fronts. Before the tariffs were announced, ATA had forecast U.S. GDP to grow by 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly growth at 1.2%, 1.6%, and 2.1%. As of Friday, those numbers have dropped to 0.3% for the year, and 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0% for the final three quarters.

The outlook for freight-related sectors isn’t faring any better. Factory output, originally expected to rise by 1.3% this year and 2.5% in 2026, is now forecast to decline by 1.0% and 0.8%. Previously projected to grow by over 2.0%, consumer spending on goods has been slashed to just 0.5% in 2025 and 0.6%. Even housing starts have taken a hit. Still, Costello urged the TRALA audience not to treat the latest numbers as set in stone. With tariff decisions evolving so quickly, the ATA has started time-stamping all of its forecasts. Any shift in trade policy—positive or negative—could immediately make the current data irrelevant.

Despite the volatility, Costello hasn’t ruled out a rebound. He emphasized that conditions were genuinely improving before the latest policy shifts. “Excluding the tariffs for a moment, things were starting to move in the right direction. It was going to get a little bit better and fleets were going to feel a little bit better,” he said.

Costello also flagged another possible future disruption—one tied to an ongoing investigation into Chinese shipbuilding and maritime practices. Earlier this year, the Trump administration released recommendations from the Biden-era U.S. Trade Representative that call for steep port call fees, ranging from $1 million to $3 million per entry, for Chinese-linked ships. These proposed penalties, aimed at curbing what the USTR labeled unfair trade practices, could severely impact the flow of imports into U.S. ports if enacted. However, Costello noted that the administration may reconsider the timing and scale of those fees amid industry pushback.

While the trucking industry just endured one of its longest freight recessions on record—27 months of sluggish conditions—Costello fears another downturn could be far more damaging. Many carriers were only just starting to regain their footing. “If another recession hits right now, it could be devastating for carriers who were finally starting to swim again after years of treading water,” he said.

For now, trucking’s path forward remains deeply tied to Washington’s decisions. Costello’s message was clear: the ingredients for recovery are still there, but so is the risk of letting it all unravel.

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

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