ACT Research Supply-Demand Balance Index Climbs to 57.2
The trucking market is inching closer to achieving equilibrium, as trends in freight demand and capacity begin to stabilize after years of significant upheaval, according to industry experts.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain landscape was heavily disrupted by a shift in consumer spending towards goods rather than services. This change caused an extraordinary surge in freight demand, which led to higher rates and an influx of new drivers into the industry. However, the eventual market downturn created excess capacity, leaving carriers scrambling to fill trucks.
“Broadly speaking, freight demand trends are gradually improving,” explained Carter Vieth, research associate at ACT Research. “The threat of another ILA dockworkers’ strike on January 15 has likely caused shippers to pull freight forward, and with tariffs on the horizon following the election, the pull-forward in freight is expected to accelerate further.”
ACT Research Data Highlights Steady Progress
Recent data from ACT Research indicates modest but promising signs of recovery. Its volume index rose by 7.4 points to 56.9 in October, while the capacity index dropped slightly by 1.1 points to 49.7. These changes boosted the supply-demand balance index to 57.2 points from 48.8 the previous month, suggesting a gradual return to a healthier market balance.
Market Dynamics and Key Observations
Despite this progress, Michael Castagnetto, president of North American Surface Transportation operations at C.H. Robinson, points to sustained oversupply in the market. “The trucking market is in a kind of limbo,” Castagnetto said. “I’d call it a state of stable, sustained oversupply. Freight demand hasn’t had many catalysts for growth.”
Castagnetto highlighted flat industrial production, slow housing starts, and reduced consumer spending as key factors behind the sluggish demand. However, modern technologies have enabled carriers to find freight opportunities more efficiently, helping many smaller operators stay afloat.
“One of the clearest signs of the state of the market is route guide depth,” Castagnetto added. “Typically, a sustained increase in route guide depth over several months would indicate the market is tightening and carriers could afford to be choosier about the freight they accept. Instead, our statistics show that route guide depth has remained flat.”
Optimism Among Carriers
According to a survey conducted by Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence on November 12, owner-operators and small fleets are starting to see some signs of improvement in the market. The survey noted that 6% more carriers expect spot rates to increase over the next three to six months, while 7% anticipate higher volumes.
However, not all news is positive. “Despite greater optimism over the outlook, more carriers expressed an intent to leave the business than in our prior survey,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “An acceleration in carrier exits could speed up the market’s return to equilibrium and provide a better backdrop for rates next year.”
Achieving Market Stability
Jacob Faunce, carrier relations manager of procurement at E2open, highlighted the complex factors at play in re-balancing the trucking market. “We are completely balanced right now in the market,” Faunce said. He noted that the closure of Yellow in July, which shed 34,000 jobs, has contributed to the adjustments in supply. “If you look back at market intelligence reports, it looks like that between July and August, we shed about 37,000 jobs.”
Another critical factor, according to Faunce, is the entry of new drivers who obtained their commercial driver licenses during the pandemic. While retail sales growth and continued volumes from regions like Asia and South America have contributed to steady demand, he expects significant rate adjustments in the near future.
“As carriers have been reducing the number of trucks in their fleets, large and small, and carriers have been exiting the market, they’ve been chasing this elusive demand that’s been moving sideways,” observed Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. “It’s been like a moving target all year where capacity’s been trying to rebalance itself to where demand is, but demand has been really elusive.”
Croke attributed this uncertainty to factors such as high interest rates, shifts in consumer spending, and decreased home construction. However, he noted that some positive signs are emerging, including returning seasonality and improved market predictability. Year-over-year rates also began to edge upward in October.
“Even in November, we’ll lose another 7,000 carriers,” Croke added. “We’ve been averaging about 7,000 carriers exiting the market all year, every month. And that just speaks to this massive influx that came in 2021 and 2022. And by my accounts of the 480,000 carriers that have joined since June of 2020, 18% are still active in the market, and that’s extraordinary.”
Source: Transport Topics
