As year-end shipping surges collide with holiday shutdowns, trucking carriers are facing a familiar but intensifying risk. Cargo theft activity consistently spikes in the days surrounding Christmas and New Year’s, prompting renewed warnings for fleets moving high value freight.
Verisk CargoNet recently issued an advisory urging carriers and logistics providers to tighten security and verification procedures during the final stretch of the year, when reduced staffing and longer dwell times can create openings for organized theft.
Based on a five-year review of confirmed cargo theft incidents and attempted fraud, the firm identified December 23 through January 2 as a recurring high-risk window across the supply chain.
Five Years of Data Show a Clear Pattern
Verisk CargoNet’s analysis found that holiday period cargo crime has risen sharply over the last five years.
Reported events climbed from 49 in 2020 to 89 in 2024, representing an increase of roughly 82 percent. Across the five holiday windows reviewed, the firm documented 353 total events. For this analysis, events included cargo theft, tractor and trailer theft, and supply chain fraud.
The data shows that criminal activity is not evenly distributed across the holiday break. Instead, it clusters tightly around specific dates.
When Risk Is Highest
Verisk CargoNet’s timing analysis highlights several key trends carriers should be aware of when planning holiday operations:
- 353 total events occurred across five holiday windows from December 23 through January 2
- About 82 percent growth in reported events from 2020 to 2024
- Roughly 69 percent of incidents occurred between December 23 and December 29
- About 53 percent occurred between December 26 and December 30
- December 23 was the single highest risk day, accounting for 56 events, or about 16 percent of the total
- Activity consistently spikes immediately before and after Christmas
For carriers, these findings reinforce the need for heightened vigilance not just on Christmas Day itself, but throughout the surrounding week when facilities may be closed and freight sits longer than usual.
Geographic Hotspots Remain Consistent
The five-year review also shows that cargo theft during the holiday period remains concentrated in major freight markets.
California recorded the highest number of holiday window events with 84 incidents, followed by Texas with 41, Illinois with 32, and Florida with 32.
At the county level, the highest concentrations were reported in San Bernardino County and Los Angeles County in California, along with Shelby County, Tennessee. These areas continue to align with dense freight corridors, high warehouse activity, and strong secondary resale markets.
What Thieves Target During the Holidays
Cargo theft during the holiday window continues to focus on commodities with strong resale demand and price volatility.
Verisk CargoNet reports that vehicle related freight such as tires, auto parts, and motor oils remains a frequent target. Other commonly stolen commodities include alcoholic beverages, televisions and display equipment, and computers and accessories.
Additional categories seeing repeated targeting include power tools, footwear, and major appliances, particularly when shipments are staged or delayed during facility closures.
Verification Failures Create Opportunity
According to Verisk CargoNet, many holiday period thefts exploit breakdowns in verification and communication rather than physical security alone.
“The holiday period creates conditions criminals exploit – reduced oversight, facility closures, and high-value freight moving on compressed schedules,” said Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet. “Carriers and shippers should verify every pickup through direct communication with known contacts, never relying solely on email, text, or caller ID. A quick call to a verified number can prevent a six- or seven-figure loss.”
For carriers, this reinforces the importance of strict pickup verification protocols, especially when last minute changes occur or unfamiliar contacts are involved.
Risk Reduction Steps for Carriers
Verisk CargoNet recommends that carriers and shippers reinforce layered security measures throughout the holiday period, particularly during peak risk days. Suggested actions include:
- Verifying pickups and appointment changes through known, trusted contacts using call back procedures
- Increasing facility access controls and security coverage during off hours and holiday closures
- Reducing dwell time for loaded trailers and avoiding unsecured parking locations
- Using secure, monitored parking for extended stops and staged equipment
- Deploying shipment monitoring and tracking tools for high value loads where available
- Establishing clear driver check in expectations during closures and extended dwell periods
- Reporting suspicious activity and confirmed incidents promptly to law enforcement and Verisk CargoNet
A Familiar Risk That Requires Extra Attention
While cargo theft is a year-round concern, the data shows that the holiday window presents a predictable spike in activity. For carriers operating through year end, planning ahead for staffing gaps, facility closures, and verification controls can make the difference between a routine delivery and a costly loss.
As freight continues to move through the final days of the year, carriers are being reminded that small process failures during the holidays can carry outsized consequences.
Source: The Trucker
