Seasonality Isn’t Just a Weather Pattern—It’s a Business Strategy
In trucking, seasonality isn’t about weather. It’s about recognizing repeatable shifts in freight volume and rates that happen throughout the year. Understanding how these cycles affect load boards and pay is one of the most practical ways to improve your revenue without changing carriers, lanes, or equipment.
What the 2025 Market Tells Us
First Quarter (January to March): Slower Start, Contract Momentum
After the usual post-holiday drop, spot rates still held higher than many expected. According to RXO’s Curve Index, spot rates rose 9.1% year-over-year by the end of Q1 2025, cooling from an 11.6% spike in Q4 2024. Contract rates also showed signs of recovery, increasing 1.4% year-over-year during Q1 as shippers began locking in rates after watching spot trends move up.
Second Quarter (April to June): Produce Pressure and Rate Gaps
In April and May, reefer and dry-van activity picked up around expected harvest periods and Memorial Day. Spot dry-van rates averaged around $1.99 per mile in May, slightly up from the previous month, although still down slightly from the same time last year. Reefer freight climbed to $2.36 per mile, about 6% higher year-over-year. Flatbed rates remained steady, hovering near $2.57 per mile.
Despite the rate increases, overall load volumes remained mixed. Reports from Overdrive and DAT show that demand on load boards spiked around Roadcheck Week and late-May shipping surges, even though the broader economy remained soft. Some of the freight strength appears tied to import patterns, agricultural cycles, and ongoing tariff-related sourcing shifts.
What This Means for Drivers
Use January–March for Planned Downtime
The first quarter is still the slowest stretch for most drivers. If you need to knock out maintenance, inspections, or credential renewals, this is when to do it—before reefer and retail season puts pressure on equipment and availability.
Shift Focus to Reefer Freight in Spring
April through early July marks the height of produce shipping in key regions. Reefer carriers who align with these cycles can take advantage of higher spot rates, but success depends on staying alert to changes in regional volume and repositioning early.
Watch for Short-Term Rate Spikes Around Holidays
Even when overall volume is flat, Memorial Day, Fourth of July, and other calendar spikes often create short-term load surges and tighter capacity. Having flexibility to move during these windows can mean better spot offers on lanes that are usually slow.
Secure Contracted Freight Before the Peak Hits
Most contract rates lag behind spot market movement by two to three months. Locking in agreements or running consistent lanes in Q2 can ensure better rates heading into Q3 when capacity tightens.
Adapt to the Right Trailer at the Right Time
Not all trailer types perform equally across the year. Flatbed tends to stay more stable, especially in construction-heavy quarters. Reefer shines in the spring and early summer. Dry van can see strong performance from late summer into the fall peak. Positioning accordingly—without major changes to your core operation—can give you an edge.
Staying Ahead of Seasonal Freight Patterns
- Track your own revenue month by month. Load board trends only tell part of the story—your books show how seasonality impacts your specific lanes and trailer type.
- Monitor leading freight indexes. Tools like DAT RateView, Truckstop MDI, and the Cass Freight Index signal shifts in supply and demand weeks before they show up in rate averages.
- Use off-peak months for negotiations. Brokers and shippers are more open to renegotiating contracts when volumes are softer.
- Watch for trade and import headlines. Freight tied to port activity, cross-border sourcing, and retail restocking can heavily affect rate cycles. Recent shifts in tariffs and sourcing from Mexico are already impacting seasonal flow.
Seasonality isn’t just a trend—it’s a tool. By understanding how spot and contract rates move across the calendar, you can plan downtime wisely, prioritize the right freight at the right time, and position yourself ahead of major market swings. Whether you’re leased on or running under your own authority, knowing the rhythm of the year helps you maximize revenue without working harder than necessary.
