In its November 2023 report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected a global surge in fuel production, estimating an increase of 1 million barrels per day in 2024. Nevertheless, the EIA anticipates a modest dip in global oil inventories at the outset of 2024, due to ongoing OPEC+ production cuts offsetting the growth in non-OPEC production.
According to the EIA’s projections, fuel consumption per capita is set to decline in 2024. The forecast also indicates that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 will stand at $93 per barrel, marking a $9 per barrel upturn from 2023. The EIA has highlighted that the risks of supply disruptions and price volatility have escalated, especially in the face of potential conflicts spreading across the Middle East.
“U.S. motorists are driving less because they aren’t commuting to work every day, newer gasoline-fueled vehicles are more efficient and there are more electric vehicles on the road,” said Joe DeCarolis, EIA Administrator. “Put those trends together with high prices and inflation, and we find that U.S. motorists are using less.”
Turning to the diesel outlook, by the close of 2023, the EIA foresees the national average diesel price per gallon to reach $4.46. This price is expected to decrease to $4.23 per gallon by the second quarter of 2024. The EIA’s latest weekly fuel report, issued on Monday, November 6, unveiled a national average of $4.366 per gallon after an 8.8-cent drop. Notably, the national diesel average has fallen in four of the past five weeks, as reported by the EIA. The EIA also pointed out that diesel prices in certain regions saw substantial declines, with the highest price per gallon recorded in California at $5.816.
Additional noteworthy insights from the EIA’s report include the surge in U.S. coal exports to pre-pandemic levels, driven by record coal demand from Europe and Asia. Despite this, the EIA maintains its expectation of a decrease in coal production next year, with the electric power sector shifting towards greater reliance on solar and wind energy for generation.
As for the 2024 outlook, the EIA anticipates an increase in electricity consumption in the United States due to colder winter conditions and warmer summer temperatures. This upswing is projected to be most significant in the residential sector, but the commercial and industrial sectors are also expected to experience a notable increase in electricity demand, according to the EIA’s analysis.
Source: Land Line
