Following a challenging year marked by disruptive hurricanes, strikes at key ports, and a landmark presidential election, the trucking industry showed promising signs of recovery in November. Increased job numbers further support speculation that the prolonged freight recession may finally be nearing its end.
Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a gain of nearly 3,000 trucking jobs in November. This uptick represents the fifth monthly gain for 2024 and the third increase within the past four months, signaling a potential shift in the trucking market.
David Spencer, Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, shared insights with Land Line: “The data strongly supports that we are past the bottom in the freight market, and I believe carriers are looking at this as a signal to begin adding headcount ahead of what appears to be a better market for trucking in 2025.”
Behind the Numbers
The recent increase in trucking employment is partly attributed to higher-paying spot freight opportunities that arose after two hurricanes and strikes along the East and Gulf Coasts in October. According to Spencer, these disruptive events created a ripple effect that temporarily boosted demand for trucking services.
Heading into the end-of-year peak season, carriers were already adopting a cautiously optimistic outlook. Spencer explained that the industry experienced more standard seasonal activity this year. He also noted that some of the heightened demand could have been fueled by early imports in anticipation of potential tariffs and the possibility of another port strike, with the current union contract extension set to expire on January 15, 2025.
While the market is trending positively, challenges remain. “While I agree that there are green shoots in the market, a larger sustained recovery still seems a ways away given the capacity trends in the market today,” Spencer added. “I still expect rates to ebb and flow with a relatively typical seasonal pattern through the first half of 2025, pending an unforeseen market catalyst.”
Revised Employment Figures
Revised labor statistics have slightly adjusted the picture of the trucking job market in recent months. October’s job losses were worse than previously reported, with an 800-job decrease instead of the initially estimated 100. Conversely, September saw a modest adjustment, shifting from a reported decrease of 100 jobs to an increase of 200.
From a year-over-year perspective, trucking employment is down by 1,400 jobs. Additionally, the industry remains nearly 40,000 jobs below its July 2022 employment peak.
The Bigger Picture in Transportation
Beyond trucking, the broader transportation sector added more than 3,000 jobs in November. This growth was driven by gains across several subsectors, including a 3,000-job increase in support activities for transportation and 1,800 new jobs in trucking and transit/ground passenger transit. However, declines were noted in couriers and messengers (down 2,200), warehousing and storage (down 1,400), and scenic/sightseeing transport (down 900). Most other subsectors experienced minimal change.
Despite monthly fluctuations, transportation jobs have risen by over 88,000 compared to the same time last year. However, employment remains 28,000 jobs below its peak in July 2022.
Wages Show Mixed Signals
Wage data for the transportation and warehousing sector presents a mixed picture. Average weekly earnings for all employees dropped by nearly $7 from October, landing at $1,162.13. However, hourly wages for these employees rose slightly, hitting $30.99 compared to $30.01 in November 2023. For production and nonsupervisory employees specifically, weekly earnings saw a small decline from October to $1,097.37, even as hourly wages rose by about $1 to $29.42 year-over-year.
Broader Economic Context
Across all industries, U.S. employment rose by 227,000 jobs in November, closely aligning with projections from leading economists, as reported by FactSet. Much of this growth is believed to reflect recovery from October’s hurricanes and port strikes.
The national unemployment rate edged up slightly, moving from 4.1% to 4.2%. However, for transportation and material-moving occupations specifically, unemployment improved year-over-year, declining from 6% to 5.7%.
Source: Land Line
