In a reassuring sign of market stabilization, trucking jobs remained steady in February, with only a marginal loss of 300 positions, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This lack of significant fluctuation in employment aligns with other indicators hinting that the downward cycle may be nearing its end.
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association’s Foundation highlighted in its January market update that the Cass Shipment Index indicates the current downturn is approaching its conclusion. This assessment is supported by rising import and intermodal trends, alongside shifts in the truckload and less-than-truckload modal mix.
Carter Vieth, a research analyst at ACT Research, anticipates a more balanced market landscape this year.
“While lower in January, this marks the sixth consecutive month in which the supply-demand balance has been positive, with decreasing capacity being the primary driver, but lesser volume declines have also contributed,” Vieth said. “Six months of green shoots suggests a more balanced market in 2024, after 17 months in a loose market balance.”
Revised figures reveal a decrease of 300 trucking jobs in January (contrary to the initially reported gain of 2,400) and an increase of 1,700 jobs in December (compared to the initially reported gain of 3,200). Consequently, trucking jobs have seen a net decrease of 600 so far this year, following last year’s loss of over 35,000 jobs in the sector. At this point last year, nearly 8,000 jobs were cut from the economy.
Across the transportation sector as a whole, employment saw a net increase of almost 20,000 jobs. This growth was primarily driven by significant gains in the couriers/messengers subsector (17,300), followed by air transportation (3,900), and support activities for transportation (2,600). However, three subsectors experienced a net loss in employment in February: warehousing/storage (minus 6,800), trucking (minus 300), and rail transportation (minus 200).
Revised data has reshaped the employment landscape in transportation for recent months. January’s revised figures indicate a notable decrease of 28,900 jobs, a significant contrast to the previously reported gain of 15,500 jobs. December’s revised numbers also show a decrease of 18,300 jobs, contradicting the initially reported increase of 1,600.
Two months into the year, transportation jobs have declined by more than 9,000. Last year saw a decrease of nearly 69,000 jobs in transportation employment, up from the initially reported 49,000 decrease.
On a month-to-month basis, wages dipped slightly in February. The average weekly earnings for all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector decreased by less than a dollar to $1,161.66. However, compared to February 2023, hourly earnings increased to $30.57 from $28.67. When considering only production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings surged by more than $10 from $1,088.25 in January to $1,098.38, with hourly earnings rising by more than $2 since January 2023, to $29.29.
Overall, 275,000 jobs were added across all industries, though the unemployment rate inched up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. In comparison to the previous year, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations rose from 5.3% to 5.7%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 3.1% increase in the consumer price index over the past 12 months. January saw a 0.3% rise, driven by increases in the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food. The index for all items less food and energy also rose by 0.4%, marking a 3.9% increase over the year.
Source: Land Line
