March saw a decline in orders for Class 8 trucks, as reported by key data-providing agencies, but the decrease is being viewed with a tempered perspective rather than as a significant downturn.
Preliminary data from ACT Research reveals that North America Class 8 net orders totaled 17,300 units in March, marking a drop of 10,400 units from February and a decrease of 8.7% compared to the previous year.
Similarly, FTR Transportation Intelligence reported a net order figure of 18,200 Class 8 vehicles for the same month. This represents a 34% decline from February and a 4% decrease from March 2023.
Despite the apparent decrease in order volumes, analysts at FTR and ACT do not interpret the situation as a severe or worrisome downturn.
“March orders are consistent with the recent demand trend and are in line with seasonal expectations,” FTR said. “After maintaining an average level of around 27,000 units for the last three months, orders appear to be slowing at a seasonally typical rate. Build slots continue to be filled at a healthy rate. With March orders comparable to the March 2023 level, the market is still performing at a solid level.”
Steve Tam, an analyst and Vice President at ACT, attributes the decline to a “forced conservatism” among some truck buyers, which he suggests has limited the number of new units ordered in March.
These preliminary figures may undergo revisions later. ACT highlights seasonal adjustment as a factor for potential revisions, estimating a modest adjustment of 1.3% in March. This would bring the adjusted March figure to 17,100 units. Notably, March marks the first month since 2023 where the seasonally adjusted total falls below 20,000 units.
FTR Chairman Eric Starks, in a prepared statement, also indicates that the decline does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a broader downturn in the industry.
“Despite weakness in the freight markets that has persisted for more than a year, fleets continue to be willing to order new equipment,” he said, adding that the March number was “in line with seasonal trends. … Demand is not declining rapidly, but neither is the market doing significantly better than replacement level demand. Our expectation for replacement output by the end of this year is unchanged.”
Source: Freightwaves
